October 22, 2014
October 22, 2014
Ari Goldkind releases comprehensive 15 year transit plan
9 things women tend to bring up that men struggle to find interesting
John Tory carries significant lead in Forum’s latest poll
The El Mocambo’s iconic neon sign finds its way onto eBay
October 21, 2014
For the time being, cyclists will not be able to use the bike rack on many of the TTC’s buses
Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pythagorean Win Theory
Nick McIsaac: Leafs' fans will be left out in the cold again come April...as you can see the numbers just seem stacked against us.

Every hockey fan dreads those words, the lyrics to the chorus of Steam’s “Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye.” Well, with eighteen games left and the Leafs four points behind Washington for the final playoff spot, I think Toronto fans are about to hear those words.

Nevermind that Burke did nothing at the trade deadline. to tell you the truth I’m relieved. With the state that the Leafs are in, I’m glad they saved those draft picks and young players we surely would have had to give up to get anyone in return. We need to think about the future, ’cause, let’s face it: this is not our year. Would I like them to squeeze into eighth spot and sneak into the first round of the playoffs? Of course. If they do, do I see them beating the Rangers? No, but anything can happen.

So let’s look at the rest of the season and see if the Leafs can hope to make the playoffs. I’m going to take a page from Bill James here and look at the rest of the Leafs’ season in terms of Pythagorean wins. I know its application in hockey isn’t exactly the same as in baseball, but for fun let’s just pretend that it works the same. Basically for baseball the formula for a win is: runs scored^2/(runs scored^2 + runs allowed^2). For the rest of the Leafs’ season we’re just going to use goals instead of runs because we can. For those of you not good at math, don’t worry, I’ll do it for you.

Keeping it simple and avoiding much explanation, basically what you come up with for the three teams sitting on the bubble: Washington (8th), Winnipeg (9th), and Toronto (10th) is a Pythagorean winning percentage. From this, you can roughly determine how their season will end up. There are other factors of course and I could get into the fact that 10 of Toronto’s remaining games are on the road, but let’s ignore that. Instead, let’s just look at the results summarized in this nice little chart:

 

 

Pythagorean %

Games Left

Wins Left

Total Points

Place

Washington

0.483

19

9.177

87.35

8th

Winnipeg

0.443

17

7.531

83.06

9th

Toronto

0.477

18

8.59

82.17

10th

Isn’t that great? A 10th place finish, just out of the playoffs. Even if you tossed in a couple possible overtime losses (Toronto has two more than Washington so far this season), Toronto would still fall just short of the Capitals for the final playoff spot. Now remember, hockey is unpredictable and nothing is set in stone, but I feel Leafs’ fans will be left out in the cold again come April; as you can see the numbers just seem stacked against us.

_______

Nick McIsaac is Toronto Standard’s sports writer. Follow him on Twitter (for everything sports related) at @nickclass.

For more, follow us on Twitter @TorontoStandard or subscribe to our newsletter.

  • TOP STORIES
  • MOST COMMENTED
  • RECENT
By Igor Bonifacic
October 21st, 2014
Editors Pick For the time being, cyclists will not be able to use the bike rack on many of the TTC's buses
Read More
By Igor Bonifacic
October 20th, 2014
Editors Pick Someone is planning a post-Rob Ford themed party for Monday
Read More
By Dylan Freeman-Grist
October 20th, 2014
Editors Pick We went skydiving for journalism.
Read More
By Igor Bonifacic
October 22nd, 2014
Editors Pick Ari Goldkind releases comprehensive 15 year transit plan
Read More
  • No article found.
  • By Igor Bonifacic
    October 22nd, 2014
    Editors Pick Ari Goldkind releases comprehensive 15 year transit plan
    Read More
    By Benjamin Mann
    October 22nd, 2014
    Culture 9 things women tend to bring up that men struggle to find interesting
    Read More
    By Igor Bonifacic
    October 22nd, 2014
    Editors Pick John Tory carries significant lead in Forum's latest poll
    Read More
    By Igor Bonifacic
    October 22nd, 2014
    Editors Pick The El Mocambo's iconic neon sign finds its way onto eBay
    Read More

    SOCIETY SNAPS

    Society Snaps: Eric S. Margolis Foundation Launch

    Kristin Davis moved Toronto's philanthroists to tears ... then sent them all home with a baby elephant - Read More