September 21, 2014
September 19, 2014
Watch: a drone’s perspective of the Scarborough Bluffs
Worn Fashion Journal announces its final issue
Fort York Visitor Centre opens to the public this weekend.
Thousands line up at the Eaton Centre for a chance to buy one of the new iPhones
IParkedInABikeLane stickers aim to shame drivers who park in the city’s bike lanes
Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pythagorean Win Theory
Nick McIsaac: Leafs' fans will be left out in the cold again come April...as you can see the numbers just seem stacked against us.

Every hockey fan dreads those words, the lyrics to the chorus of Steam’s “Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye.” Well, with eighteen games left and the Leafs four points behind Washington for the final playoff spot, I think Toronto fans are about to hear those words.

Nevermind that Burke did nothing at the trade deadline. to tell you the truth I’m relieved. With the state that the Leafs are in, I’m glad they saved those draft picks and young players we surely would have had to give up to get anyone in return. We need to think about the future, ’cause, let’s face it: this is not our year. Would I like them to squeeze into eighth spot and sneak into the first round of the playoffs? Of course. If they do, do I see them beating the Rangers? No, but anything can happen.

So let’s look at the rest of the season and see if the Leafs can hope to make the playoffs. I’m going to take a page from Bill James here and look at the rest of the Leafs’ season in terms of Pythagorean wins. I know its application in hockey isn’t exactly the same as in baseball, but for fun let’s just pretend that it works the same. Basically for baseball the formula for a win is: runs scored^2/(runs scored^2 + runs allowed^2). For the rest of the Leafs’ season we’re just going to use goals instead of runs because we can. For those of you not good at math, don’t worry, I’ll do it for you.

Keeping it simple and avoiding much explanation, basically what you come up with for the three teams sitting on the bubble: Washington (8th), Winnipeg (9th), and Toronto (10th) is a Pythagorean winning percentage. From this, you can roughly determine how their season will end up. There are other factors of course and I could get into the fact that 10 of Toronto’s remaining games are on the road, but let’s ignore that. Instead, let’s just look at the results summarized in this nice little chart:

 

 

Pythagorean %

Games Left

Wins Left

Total Points

Place

Washington

0.483

19

9.177

87.35

8th

Winnipeg

0.443

17

7.531

83.06

9th

Toronto

0.477

18

8.59

82.17

10th

Isn’t that great? A 10th place finish, just out of the playoffs. Even if you tossed in a couple possible overtime losses (Toronto has two more than Washington so far this season), Toronto would still fall just short of the Capitals for the final playoff spot. Now remember, hockey is unpredictable and nothing is set in stone, but I feel Leafs’ fans will be left out in the cold again come April; as you can see the numbers just seem stacked against us.

_______

Nick McIsaac is Toronto Standard’s sports writer. Follow him on Twitter (for everything sports related) at @nickclass.

For more, follow us on Twitter @TorontoStandard or subscribe to our newsletter.

  • TOP STORIES
  • MOST COMMENTED
  • RECENT
By Igor Bonifacic
August 26th, 2014
Editors Pick Meet Tiny Hearts, the Toronto app studio that's one of Apple's favourites
Read More
By JJ Wong
September 2nd, 2014
Editors Pick Toronto-based Sockzi wants to make everyone a socks fan
Read More
By Dylan Freeman-Grist
August 29th, 2014
Editors Pick Building the perfect Shoebox
Read More
By Igor Bonifacic
August 28th, 2014
Art and Design Nuit Blanche announces 2014 lineup
Read More
  • No article found.
  • By Igor Bonifacic
    September 19th, 2014
    Editors Pick Watch: a drone's perspective of the Scarborough Bluffs
    Read More
    By Igor Bonifacic
    September 19th, 2014
    Editors Pick Worn Fashion Journal announces its final issue
    Read More
    By Igor Bonifacic
    September 19th, 2014
    Editors Pick Fort York Visitor Centre opens to the public this weekend.
    Read More
    By Igor Bonifacic
    September 19th, 2014
    Editors Pick Thousands line up at the Eaton Centre for a chance to buy one of the new iPhones
    Read More

    SOCIETY SNAPS

    Society Snaps: Eric S. Margolis Foundation Launch

    Kristin Davis moved Toronto's philanthroists to tears ... then sent them all home with a baby elephant - Read More