It’s finally here! The Oscars are just four days away.
After a year of anticipation and a long awards season full of triumph and disappointments, The Artist is looking like the one-to-beat; news that kingmaker and producer Harvey Weinstein has been spouting since it debuted at Cannes and picked up momentum at TIFF.
The Artist has won almost every big Best Picture precursor, and the flick is likely to walk away with the big, golden prize at the end of the night. But, the question remains, just how many awards will it snag?
The most contentious categories for Oscar Sunday are Best Actor and Best Actress. Jean Dujardin and the mega-watt George Clooney and Brad Pitt will duke it out for Best Actor, while longtime theatre buddies Meryl Streep and Viola Davis vie for Best Actress.
To kick-off our exclusive Oscar Crash Course, here are our final predictions (and selected commentary) for the big night, using our brain, heart, and gut.
The Big Six (Best Picture, Best Director, and all the actors)
BEST PICTURE
Brain (What we think it will be): The Artist
Heart (What we want it to be): Moneyball
Gut (What it will probably be): The Artist
Let’s be real. At this point, there is a very slim chance The Artist will not take home the biggest prize this Sunday night. The only picture standing in its way is Martin Scorsese’s (for those of you who saw the Bridesmaids cast at the SAG Awards – it’s time for you to drink!) Hugo, but expect Hugo to sweep in the technical categories. Hugo‘s lack of acting nominations throughout awards season this year point to its weakness in comparative stand-out performances, and, frankly, it is just more of a visual piece of moviemaking than anything else. On the heart side, it is great to see Moneyball up here. Of the nominated films, it’s definitely my favourite. Using actual sportscasting as voiceovers to bridge over the more boring statistical wizardry? Brilliant! But, I digress. My money’s on The Artist.
BEST DIRECTOR
Brain: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Heart: Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Gut: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Sure, Scorsese (drink!) could walk away with this one – like he did at the Globes – but it’s going to be The Artist’s night. Hazanavicius won the coveted Best Director award at the Director’s Guild of America Awards earlier this year, and since 2000, Ang Lee was the only director who won this prize who did not, in fact, win the Oscar. My heart is rooting for Alexander Payne, but that might be due to leftover Election swooning. Can we reunite Payne and Reese Witherspoon already? It has been 13 years. Surely Tracy Flick has become a congresswoman by now, or worse.
BEST ACTOR
Brain: George Clooney, The Descendants
Heart: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gut: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
This is the hardest race to call. The precursors have been all over the place, bouncing back and forth between Clooney and Dujardin, and they have both been working the circuit in their own way. Dujardin flew into New York to do a quick dancing spot on Saturday Night Live right before hopping on a flight to the UK for the BAFTAs, whereas Clooney auspiciously gave CBS a 20-minute guided tour of his house. Hmm. However, I’m rooting for Pitt, whose effortless performance in Moneyball has been sadly under-recognized this season.
BEST ACTRESS
Brain: Viola Davis, The Help
Heart: Charlize Theron, Young Adult. No, I’m still not over it.
Gut: Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl vs. Viola. Yes, this is quite the mighty race. Davis and Streep have strong ties dating back to Broadway days of yore (if you will), and the buzz around Streep is that this is “her time,” simply because the perennial nominee has not won in 29 years. Well, that campaign is worth an eyebrow raise, but not much more. Colour me surprised if Viola does not take this prize home on Sunday.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brain/Heart/Gut: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
There has been some talk in the Best Supporting Actor race, which I call the race of the 82-year-old male, about whether or not Plummer or same-aged-rival Max von Sydow will take home the gold, but be serious. There is no contest here. Unless von Sydow pulls a Jim-Broadbent-in-Iris-style upset, there is no chance Plummer goes home, yet again, empty handed.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Brain: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Heart: Jessica Chastain, The Help
Gut: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Consider this a lock for Spencer. Chastain pretty much cancelled herself out in this category with her ubiquitous presence in Hollywood this year, delivering countless superb performances, one after another.
Behind the Scenes: Creative
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Brain: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Heart: J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Gut: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Allen’s an Oscar favourite, but Midnight in Paris, ever-charming and delightful was no Match Point or Vicky Cristina Barcelona. … Or Annie Hall, for that matter. Margin Call was criminally overlooked this awards season, as it delivered the best ensemble cast performance of the year. Aside from obsessive Heroes fans in seasons one through three, who knew Zachary Quinto had it in him? Anyway, even though the Oscars typically side with Allen, again, this one is going to go to Hazanavicius.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Brain: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
Heart: Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
Gut: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
The Descendants’ screenplay was charming and poignant, and has struck a chord with voters throughout awards season. It would be nice to see Sorkin and Zaillian pull one out here, but it looks like they will just have to add yet another nomination plaque and gift basket to their arsenal instead of a miniaturized statuette of a naked man.
BEST FILM EDITING
Brain: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Heart: Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball
Gut: Kevin Tant, The Descendants
This category is up for grabs, but it is a toss-up between The Artist and The Descendants. Could go either way, depending on how many awards The Artist wins, but this could be an easy pick up for Tant.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Brain: Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
Heart: Jeff Cronenweth, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Gut: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Oy, The Tree of Life. Say what you will about its overindulgent “life through time” visual scenes, but its hard to deny how breathtaking they are. You know, in that Planet Earth sense.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Brain: Mark Bridges, The Artist
Heart: Arianne Phillips, W.E.
Gut: Sandy Powell, Hugo
As I mentioned before, Hugo is going to go home with plenty of technical wins, and its ornate confectionary of costumes were one of its biggest strengths.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Brain/Heart/Gut: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, Hugo
No contest.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Brain: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Heart: Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Gut: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Imagine the challenge of making a silent-movie-about-a-silent-movie. Now imagine that same challenge without an incredible score to keep the story moving. Bource’s score in The Artist did that and more. You could even say it kept the movie Bource-ing along. You know, if you wanted to.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Brain/Heart/Gut: “Man or Muppet,” from The Muppets
Seriously, AMPAS? Only two nominees for Best Original Song? Even with a shortlist of names? Sigh. It is 50/50 on this one, but put all your money on “Man or Muppet.”
In Real Life? Documentaries and Foreign Films
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Brain: A Separation (Iran)
Heart: Footnote (Israel) or Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Gut: A Separation (Iran)
A Separation is a revelation. Well worth the watch, and it is too bad it did not pick up as much steam as Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon did back in the 2000 race. Of course, it would be great to see Canadian darling Monsieur Lazhar win, marking the second consecutive year a Canadian title was nominated by the Academy.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Brain: Pina
Heart: Pina
Gut: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina! Pina! Pina! If you popped by the TIFF Bell Lightbox any time over the past six weeks, you likely heard audiences in line, at the Canteen or Luma raving about this film. It really needs to see to be believed, but it is a bit of a tough sell. I mean, a mostly-German documentary about an eccentric choreographer? Talk about a niche market. For that same reason, it makes all the more sense that the Academy will go with the equally moving, but much more “serious” Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, about the West Memphis Three.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Brain: Saving Face
Heart: God is the Bigger Elvis
Gut: Saving Face
Saving Face is a powerful look at the survivors of acid attacks to the face in developing countries, most of whom are women. It is a fantastic example of documentary storytelling, and there is little doubt it will receive the big prize.
Behind the Scenes: Technical
BEST MAKEUP
Brain: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs
Heart: Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady
Gut: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs
Albert Nobbs has been a well-documented labour of love for the entire crew. Sadly, the makeup is more transformative and impeccable than the flick, but it will pick up the win.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Brain: Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty, Hugo
Heart: Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis, Drive
Gut: Ren Klyce, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Sound Editing is usually a challenge to predict, and a bore to announce, because very few people know what it actually means. You may as well just scream “bathroom break” across the airwaves, which is why the Academy likes to combat this awards fatigue with a marquee presenter, like Will Smith. Still, I would bet on the pounding and unflinching sound work on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Brain: David Parker, Ren Klyce, Michael Semanick and Bo Persson, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Heart: Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, and Ed Novick, Moneyball
Gut: Tom Fleischman and John Midgley, Hugo
At least Best Sound Editing may kind of make sense to the average viewer, but the Best Sound Mixing category is even more abstract; often going to a famed summer blockbuster. This year, it is Hugo’s to lose.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Brain/Heart/Gut: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, and Daniel Barrett, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Hail Caesar!
Animated and Short Films:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brain/Heart/Gut: Rango
Gore Verbinski and Johnny Depp reunited for some great content… What more do you need?
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Brain/Heart/Gut: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Check it out!
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Brain: The Shore
Heart: Tuba Atlantic
Gut: The Shore
The TIFF Bell Lightbox has been showing all of the Oscar-nominated shorts for the past few weeks, and – forgive the pun – The Shore has made the biggest splash with audiences. Expect this reaction to be reflected in the Academy’s voting.
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This is the first of four articles in our Toronto Standard Oscar Crash Course series.
Why TIFF (and Toronto) deserve the most Oscar bragging rights
Uncover how producer and Hollywood kingmaker, Harvey Weinstein turned The Artist, a silent, black-and-white movie into an Oscar frontrunner
Oscars 2012: A final five list of possible upsets, and snubs that still sting
Joanna Adams is a reporter for Toronto Standard. She obsesses about the Academy Awards year-round, and her favourite Oscar host is David Letterman.
Join the Toronto Standard on Sunday as Joanna Adams, Jessica Carroll, and Scott MacDonald live blog the Academy Awards. Or, watch alongside them at 7 p.m. on CTV, or ABC.
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